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Secondly the commodity prices moderation is going to help reduce the pressure on margins but of course yes, the downside is that with global growth looking like it is going to be particularly weak our exports outlook does not seem to be very strong right now. Looking ahead too we are not more hopeful, of course for similar reasons one, service sector growth seems to be strong in India. We are pegging Q1 GDP growth at 12.5 to 13%. The second is that because of the commodity prices being so high, margin pressure was particularly acute in Q1. This is based on 15 high frequency lead indicators for the non-agricultural sectors but what we feel is that in Q1 there are two things which are going to be very important while the actual GDP growth is going to be much lower than this 24.5% and one is that we had the impact of the heat wave on the rabi output. We have our own ICRA business activity monitor and that is showing us that on a low base of last year’s second wave of Covid-19 for Q1 the year-on-year growth is around 24.5%. The second thing is what is really happening as far as global growth is concerned, we have seen significant rate hikes across the board as far as global central bankers are concerned, do you think if global growth comes down India will not be insulated even though the growth number may come in it will be lower than what the consensus estimates right now are?Īs far as Q1 is concerned we believe that Indian GDP growth is going to be around 12.5 to 13%.
We think the services sector is going to lead the demand recovery in India and that is something that is going to add to the momentum as far as the services inflation is concerned going ahead and that is a reasonable part of our Indian CPI. However, for the Indian CPI there is a different risk that we are very watchful of which is what kind of momentum will we start seeing on the services side going ahead because that is really where we expect the Indian demand to be stronger. And that is something that we see will come in very quickly into our Indian WPI inflation, a little more slowly into the CPI inflation although what it is going to do it prevents further month-on-month increases in the Indian CPI from being very large.
The demand is quite uneven but even maintaining at those levels seems to be a little out of touch with the kind of commodity prices that we were seeing. In the Indian context we have two different sorts of triggers that we are looking at as far as our inflationary leads are concerned one, we have got the global slowdown as far as the commodity prices and this is very welcome because commodity prices had climbed to a level that seemed to be a little unsustainable with demand.
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The free edition also leaves much to be desired.ICRA business activity monitor and that is showing us that on a low base of last year’s second wave of Covid-19 for Q1 the year-on-year growth is around 24.5%,” says Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.ĭo you think that there would be an extreme sort of a slowdown as far as inflation is concerned, do you think that is something which is the next thing to watch out for?
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